Kashmir Impulse Desk
Srinagar, Aug 4
Climate change and the interaction of moisture-laden southwest monsoon winds with Western Disturbances are increasing the frequency and intensity of cloudbursts and extreme rainfall events across India’s Himalayan region of Jammu and Kashmir, meteorologists and climate experts said.
More than 35 cloudbursts and several episodes of intense rainfall have been reported across the region this year, triggering flash floods and landslides that have killed at least 31 people and damaged homes, roads, bridges and farmland.
Fresh incidents were reported on Tuesday after cloudbursts and torrential rain hit Pahalgam, Shopian, Bandipora, Gurez, Lolab, Ganderbal, Kishtwar and parts of Drass in neighbouring Ladakh on Monday. A woman died in the Lolab area of north Kashmir, officials said.
The deadliest event occurred on July 19, when flash floods and landslides in the Rajouri and Poonch districts killed more than 25 people. Similar weather events have also affected Doda, Ramban, Reasi, Samba, Kathua and Kishtwar districts this year.
Meteorological Department Director Mukhtar Ahmad said the interaction between advancing monsoon currents and weak Western Disturbances was creating favourable conditions for short-duration but high-intensity rainfall.
“As the monsoon advances, such events become more frequent, especially in mountainous districts,” Ahmad said.
Although forecasting has improved through Doppler weather radars, satellite observations and automated weather stations, accurately predicting the precise location of a cloudburst remains difficult because such systems develop over very small areas, he said.
Rainfall this season has remained highly uneven, Ahmad said, with heavy downpours confined to isolated pockets while many plains continue to record rainfall deficits despite repeated wet spells since April.
He said warmer temperatures were allowing the atmosphere to retain more moisture.
“For every one-degree Celsius rise in temperature, the atmosphere can hold nearly 7 percent more moisture. That increases the possibility of intense rainfall within a short period,” Ahmad said.
Climatologist Sonam Lotus said the Himalayan terrain naturally amplified intense rainfall.
“When moisture-laden air rises over mountain slopes, it cools rapidly and forms deep convective clouds through the orographic process. These systems can produce cloudbursts or extremely heavy rain over very limited areas,” Lotus said.
He said climate change, fragile Himalayan geology, unplanned development and increasing pressure on natural resources were together making the region more vulnerable to disasters.
Riyaz Ahmad Mir, a hydrogeologist at the National Institute of Hydrology in Jammu, said warming temperatures were altering mountain ecosystems and rainfall patterns.
“Changing rainfall patterns are increasing the risk of flash floods, landslides and slope failures, putting ecosystems adapted to gradual seasonal shifts under stress,” Mir said.
Independent weather forecaster Faizan Ahmad said cloudbursts were not the only trigger for flash floods.
“A cloudburst generally refers to rainfall of about 100 millimetres in an hour, but even around 60 millimetres falling rapidly can generate dangerous flash floods in steep terrain because runoff is extremely fast,” he said.
The India Meteorological Department has forecast unsettled weather across Jammu and Kashmir until August 11, with widespread rain and thundershowers expected through August 8 and scattered rainfall likely thereafter in Kashmir.
Authorities have warned of flash floods, landslides, mudslides, shooting stones and isolated cloudbursts in vulnerable areas.
The latest weather spell follows repeated extreme events last year that included cloudbursts, flash floods, mudslides, hailstorms and rockfalls between April and September.
The Srinagar-Jammu National Highway remained closed for more than 50 days in separate spells last year because of landslides and shooting stones, disrupting supplies and leaving trucks carrying Kashmir apples stranded.
Heavy rain, hailstorms and gusty winds also damaged orchards across the region between April and June this year, affecting blossoms and young fruit during critical stages of crop development.
According to figures shared by India’s Ministry of Home Affairs in Parliament, floods and heavy rainfall killed 199 people in Jammu and Kashmir last year. The disasters also killed nearly 11,700 livestock, damaged more than 8,400 houses and affected about 77,900 hectares (192,500 acres) of farmland.
The deadliest single incident occurred on August 14, 2025, when a cloudburst along the Machail Mata pilgrimage route in Kishtwar district triggered flash floods that killed nearly 70 people, most of them pilgrims.
